SourceHighestpayingcryptogamesandroid: giant tide WAVE

Wen | Xie Zefeng

Editor | Yang Xu (Jin Kirin analyst) ran

At the Beijing International Auto Show not long ago, Zhou Hongyi shuttled through the major booths, using his "big topic" of selling Maybach for new energy, giving domestic cars a round of height.

An interesting episode is that in addition to calling on the bosses of various car companies, there is an entrepreneur at the meeting.HighestpayingcryptogamesandroidHe called it the "real boss", that is, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of the Ningde era, who provides power for domestic new energy vehicles.

At present, Ningde Times has topped the global power battery market for seven consecutive years, with a global market share of 36% in 2023.Highestpayingcryptogamesandroid.8%, an all-time high. It is still the "king of power batteries".

In the secondary market, the share price of Ningde era has rebounded sharply, rebounding by more than 40% since its low at the end of January, and the market capitalization has re-approached the 1 trillion mark. Morgan Stanley even upgraded its rating to super-matching, and did not hesitate to praise it, calling it a "long-term cash cow".

Although performance growth has slowed, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the Ningde era is only 20 times earnings, and there is limited room for a decline in valuations. the room for upward profits is more noteworthy by comparison-especially at a time when China's new energy vehicles are expanding overseas so rapidly.

In China, excluding the self-sufficient BYD, the Ningde era has a market share of more than 60%, which belongs to the ceiling level in any fully competitive market.

But overseas, there is still a lot of room for increment in the market. In the United States, the Ningde era is working with car companies through LRS (technology licensing), which is expected to bypass restrictive laws; in the European market, Southeast Asia and other regions, the Ningde era is still expanding.

The breadth of the golden track of new energy vehicles is far beyond imagination, and overseas cooperation is also gradually clarifying its ideas. Coupled with the upstream lithium mine price reduction, "Ning Wang" encountered some time before the public opinion, most are no longer a problem.

Resolutely go to sea

Europe + American market.

"We should not only build electric cars, but also restrict manufacturing in China." This is the dilemma for the United States to promote the new energy vehicle industry.

On the one hand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is much lower than that in China and Europe, with only 9% at the end of 2023.Highestpayingcryptogamesandroid.3%. It has been proposed to achieve the target of 50% of new car sales of "zero-emission vehicles" by 2030.

But on the other hand, the American new energy vehicle industry chain lags behind China in an all-round way. At present, the United States does not have a fully independent power battery manufacturer, and the battery technology urgently needs the guidance of Chinese enterprises.

There are both opportunities and challenges. As early as 2022, Ford chose to join hands with the Ningde era to build a new power battery plant in Michigan, with a total investment of US $3.5 billion. However, the process of the project is full of twists and turns, first reviewed, forced to suspend, then restarted, and the scale has shrunk from 30GWh to 20GWh.

For Ford, only Chinese companies can do this if they want to improve technology and efficiency and reduce costs. Ford currently uses ternary lithium batteries from SK On and LG, which are abnormally expensive, causing the electric vehicle division to lose $4.7 billion in 2023.

Therefore, Ford has been fascinated by the lithium iron phosphate battery and CTP technology in the Ningde era. Ford CEO Jim Farley once said: "the Ningde era is Ford's only choice, and there are no companies of the same size as the Ningde era." It is almost impossible to bypass the independent development of Chinese enterprises. This is the "American version of the market for technology" and the "technology for market" of the Ningde era.

In order to comply with the American IRA Act and meet the subsidy requirements, Ningde era put forward the cooperation model of LRS (Licence Royalty Service).

In addition to Ford, Ningde Times is also reported to be in talks with General Motors to jointly build a lithium iron phosphate battery plant in North America.

In January this year, it also expanded the energy storage production line with Tesla in the Nevada battery plant, and Ningde era provided some equipment, but will not participate in manufacturing process management. Tesla leased the development capability (scheme) of Ningde era and jointly developed new battery chemical composition.

Zeng Yuqun has said publicly that there are 10-20 car companies currently talking about, and the LRS model has the ability to promote and copy around the world.

This model can be compared to "light asset" output. Ningde era provides intellectual support such as technical guidance, engineer training, audit and supply chain construction, with partners fully responsible for capital expenditure and local production. Ningde era does not own shares in the cooperative factory, but only collects patent licensing and service fees. The total profit earned by this model is expected to be less than that of selling batteries alone, but the profit margin is higher.

As the domestic market share is almost at its peak, globalization is the core incremental factor in the future of Ningde era. In 2023, the company contributed 32.67% of its overseas revenue. Excluding the Chinese market, Ningde's market share rose to 27.4%, still lagging behind LG new energy, and there is still a lot of room for it.

Europe is currently its most important overseas position. Ningde's market share in Europe reached 35.1% in 2023 and is about to overtake LG this year. European mainstream car companies adhere to a strict fixed-point supply chain process, and at present, Ningde era has won a higher share in the new round of fixed-point in 2026-2030, which will support its market share to continue to increase.

In June last year, Morgan Stanley downgraded the Ningde era, arguing that geopolitical tensions and price war put the Ningde era at risk of market share and profit margins, causing its share price to plunge by more than 6% at one point.

However, more than eight months later, Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating to "overweight", pointing out that the impact of the US inflation reduction Act has been basically digested by the market, and that the company's profit margins and cash flow will improve significantly. Affected by this, Ningwang's share price soared 14.46%.

After the headwind of overseas disadvantages has been digested, Ningde's performance is still growing, and undervaluation coupled with a recovery in the capital market has triggered a sharp reversal in share prices.

Profit improvement

There is not much reason to continue to be bearish on the Ningde era.

In 2024, the price war in the field of power batteries is still fierce, but thanks to the sharp decline in lithium mine prices, Ningde era does not increase its financial profits.

　　今年一季度，宁德时代营收798亿元，同比减少10.4%；归母净利润105.1亿元，同比增加7%；扣非归母净利润92.5亿元，同比增加18.6%。

　　与此相对应的是，一季度，宁德时代国内市场份额提升4个百分点，达到48.9%；前两个月，在全球的市占率提升5个百分点至38.4%。市场份额提升，但营收下滑，意味着销售端价格承压，且行业有出清迹象。

　　相比竞争对手，宁德时代的产品售价一直保持较强韧性。公司去年动力电池销售321GWh，根据该板块2852.53亿元的收入，可估算出动力电池售价约0.889元/Wh，同比下滑了9%。

　　而整个动力电池电芯价格近乎腰斩，今年一季度，磷酸铁锂电芯均价降到0.38元/Wh，同比降低52%；三元锂电芯降到0.48元/Wh，同比降低44%。

　　有分析认为，0.4元/Wh的电芯售价，意味着上游碳酸锂价格要维持在10万元/吨以内，才能保证盈利。

　　而碳酸锂价格从2023年初近 60 万元/吨的高位，一路暴跌至8.5万元/吨的低位，现在正好卡在10万元/吨的盈亏生死线上。

　　价格处于高位，全行业暴赚，车企给电池厂打工；当价格崩塌，价格战爆发，攻守之势逆转，导致商业社会不同的悲喜。

　　国轩高科一季度盈利仅0.69亿元 同比下降8.56%；孚能科技2023年亏损17.74亿元（业绩快报），同比下降91.35%；中创新航实现净利润2.94亿元，同比降低57.4%。

　　而得益于成本控制优秀，原材料采购成本下降，一季度宁德时代营业成本仅587亿，同比下降16%。成本降幅大于终端售价下滑，定价仍有韧性，盈利能力不降反增。

　　宁德时代还入局上游锂矿，原材料中有一部分源于自有矿山。一份流出的投资者交流纪要中，宁德时代曾指出：“锂矿价格低的时候我们就采购，价格高就多挖点自己的矿。”

　　过去三年来，宁德时代每年布局三个矿产项目。去年，宁德时代牵头以100亿人民币染指玻利维亚盐湖提锂项目，出资64亿元入主斯诺威锂矿，成为全球最大钴矿商洛阳钼业第二大股东，联合开发钴矿资源。

　　全产业链布局，加上行业巨无霸规模对上游供应商的议价能力，其成本优势相比全行业还能进一步提升。

　　今年以来，各家新能源汽车新车型不断推出，作为行业最大玩家，宁德时代获得更多订单。

　　比如，奇瑞星途星纪元ET成为国内首个搭载宁德时代神行超充电池的车型，神行电池全能系列、麒麟电池全能系列则首发于小米 SU7 Pro和 Max版本，理想L6改用磷酸铁锂，供应商为欣旺达和宁德时代。

　　作为行业绝对领先者，在当下的新能源汽车爆发式上量、面向全球市场开拓的窗口，没有太多理由再继续看空宁德时代。

　　登上前台

宁德时代早晚要进入到更多普通人的视线中。

　　当电动车越来越像智能手机，消费者对其内部的配件就会更加挑剔，尤其是动力来源的电池，很大程度上决定着汽车的行驶里程和安全性。越来越受到潜在车主关注。

　　动力电池虽属于工业制造品，但由于车企需求不同，电池是一种非标产品。当前，很多消费者在选购时，都会非常重视电池的生产厂商。

　　动力电池无形中已逐步演化为B2B2C的科技产物。5年前，东风猛士科技CMO万良渝在和宁德时代洽谈合作时，提出了“宁德时代Inside”的概念。

　　今年初，这一想法正式落地，猛士917车身上将印有“宁德时代 CATL Inside”标识，该车型也成为首个印有此标识的电动车。

　　猛士与宁德时代的合作更深一步

　　此举类似PC时代的英特尔CPU，智能手机领域的高通芯片，消费者能够亲身感受到电脑芯片、手机芯片的性能差距，电池差异化则在充电效率、续航里程、使用寿命等场景得到体现。

　　作为行业一哥，宁德时代推出了多款让能直接让消费者快速感知的产品：小米SU7 MAX搭载的麒麟全能系列，可实现充电19分钟，电量由10%至80%的补能速度；神行电池——全球首款磷酸铁锂4C超充电池，15分钟内充满电。在常温条件下，宁德时代号称“充电10分钟，续航400公里”。

　　北京车展上，“超充+高续航”已经成为许多车型的标配，800V平台在20万纯电市场渗透率大幅提升，极氪007、智界S9、新款问界M5、星纪元ET等都已搭载。

　　卷性能的背景下，宁德时代在效仿英特尔。在PC时代，英特尔将“Intel Inside”的logo印在电脑产品上，取得了巨大成功，甚至重塑了产业链的议价权，使CPU成为用户关注的对象， 而非计算机的品牌。

　　到今年3月，新能源汽车（批发口径）渗透率已经达到37%，乘用车渗透率超过40%，按照这个发展速度，王传福预计新能源汽车的渗透率将很快突破50%，甚至更高，传统燃油车将进入“生命倒计时”。

　　随着新能源汽车成为新购置汽车中的主力，车主基数逐步扩大，消费者对电池的感知更加明显，宁德时代在此时推进Inside模式正逢其时。下游整车厂拼得刺刀见红，宁德时代强化在车主心中的地位，更有利于提升自身在产业链中的议价能力。

　　特别是神行快充电池，宁德时代还特意给它打起了户外广告，这是整个行业非常罕见的。

　　可以看出，宁德时代早晚要进入到更多普通人的视线之中，就像英特尔、高通、英伟达不会仅仅是科技时代的幕后英雄。曾毓群进入到周鸿祎的直播画面，可能正是这一场宁德时代逐渐走向前台大戏的预演。