Zhitong Financial APP learned thatRtgcasinonodepositbonusAccording to a research report released by CICC, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has accelerated since March, leading to an increase in demand for sodium pyroantimonate, and the high price of antimony has risen under the background of rigid supply and disturbance. According to data from Asia Metal Network and Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 24, the average prices of antimony concentrate, domestic antimony ingots and MB antimony respectively closed at 8.Rtgcasinonodepositbonus450,000 yuan per ton, 98000 yuan per ton and US $14600 per ton, up 24%, 20% and 24% respectively from the beginning of this year, and the domestic price of antimony ingots is only 10% lower than the peak in 2011. On the other hand, considering the rigidity of global antimony supply, global antimony supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight pattern.

It is suggested that attention should be paid to the targets with rich reserves and strong production growth: Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH), Huayu Mining (601020.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ).

The main points of CICC are as follows:

On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry continues to be in high spirits, and the domestic trade-in policy is expected to boost demand in traditional areas.

According to CICC's calculation, photovoltaic glass accounted for 22% of the consumption structure downstream of antimony in 2023, and flame retardants accounted for 52%. First, according to Zhuochuang information, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has reached 106000 tons on April 19th, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has accelerated since March, which has led to a significant demand for sodium pyroantimonate. Considering the high production schedule of photovoltaic modules in April and May and the month-on-month increase, the demand for sodium pyroantimonate is expected to continue to grow. Second, antimony downstream demand accounts for the largest proportion of flame retardants, and electrical equipment and other fields are highly related. On April 12, 14 departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued a circular on the Action Plan for promoting the Trade-in of Consumer goods, making detailed arrangements for the trade-in of household appliances, and the gradual landing and implementation of the trade-in policy is expected to lead to an improvement in the amount of antimony used in flame retardants.

On the supply side, there is a disturbance under the background of rigid supply at the mine end, and the inventory of domestic smelters continues to be low.

First, according to the company's announcement, Hunan Gold Xinlong Mining headquarters temporarily suspended production on March 27, and its antimony production in 2023 was 6060 tons, accounting for 5% of the global antimony production in the same year. We believe that there is a disturbance at the mine end under the background of rigid supply, which further aggravates the tight situation of antimony supply. Second, according to the Asian Metal Network, the inventory of antimony ingots in domestic smelters in March was 1300 tons, compared with-28% and 8%, which is at an all-time low. CICC believes that as downstream demand continues to improve, supply is rigid and antimony ingot stocks are historically low, antimony prices are expected to continue to rise.

In the long run, the tight pattern of global antimony supply and demand continues, and the antimony price center is expected to move up.

CICC pointed out that thanks to the rapid growth of new photovoltaic installations and the increase in the permeability of double glass modules, the amount of antimony used in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow rapidly, and the gradual landing and implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to lead to an increase in demand for electrical equipment, thus increasing the amount of antimony used in the field of flame retardants. It is estimated that the global demand for antimony will be about 5.4% in 2022-2027. Taking into account the rigidity of global antimony supply, global antimony supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight pattern. The gap between global antimony supply and demand from 2024 to 2027 is expected to be-0.3,0.6,0.4 and-8000 tons respectively, accounting for-2 per cent,-4 per cent,-2 per cent and-4 per cent of demand, respectively. Supply and demand may continue to be tight, and the antimony price center is expected to move up.

Risk

Overseas supply exceeded expectations, demand for flame retardants was lower than expected, and downstream demand for antimony was replaced by higher than expected.