Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, April 20, a remark from Musk made it clear that Tesla's FSD entry into China is approaching.

Today, some users asked Musk questions on the social platform.PlaytoearnappscryptoI look forward to Tesla FSD entering China as soon as possible. When can it be realized? HW3PlaytoearnappscryptoWhen can 3D modeling images be used in the .0 system? When will the new reversing assist function be pushed to Tesla HW3.0 owners in China? "

Musk replied, "this may happen soon."

What is the current level of ▌ FSD?

Just a week ago, Tesla announced that the price of overseas FSD subscriptions would be halved directly: the monthly subscription fee would be reduced from $199 to $99.

Mr Musk estimates that Tesla's FSD test mileage needs to reach 6 billion miles to meet the requirements of global regulators. According to the data released by Tesla on April 6, the actual test mileage of the FSD is 1 billion miles.

Although there is still a long way to go, Musk announced earlier this month that Robotaxi will be launched and commercialized on August 8 this year-which means that Tesla needs more FSD users and road test mileage in a short period of time.

At present, Tesla FSD has been upgraded to V12.3 end-to-end version, which no longer depends on traditional rule code, but completely depends on neural network and data-driven.

Citic Securities reported on March 28 that the core benefit of "end-to-end" is that the key to model iteration has changed from "engineer" to "data and computing power" that is easier to scale, so the training efficiency and performance limit are expected to be significantly improved. The performance potential shown by the scheme is expected to significantly improve the takeover level of the autopilot system, thereby achieving truly undisputed L3 capabilities (for example, taking over once a week).

From the perspective of user feedback, the performance of V12 is indeed outstanding: according to the North American users participating in FSD Beta V12, the number of interventions is significantly lower than that of V11 V12, and "more silky" and "more humanoid" are also common comments.

What does ▌ FSD need to enter China?

It was reported last year that Tesla was building its first data centre, whose data centre business could be stored locally, and that all data generated from selling vehicles in the Chinese mainland market would be stored in China. And Tesla is setting up a local operation team of about 20 people in China to promote the landing of FSD in the Chinese market, and is preparing to set up a data tagging team of hundreds of people in China to provide manual labeling samples for training FSD algorithms.

If FSD lands in our country, data acquisition, model training and computing center are regarded as the key.

China International Capital Corporation once said that if FSD is promoted in China, the whole set of data closed loop needs to be in China, and preparations need to be made in data collection and model training, considering whether the BEV awareness scheme can be well adapted to localization. In China, FSD mapping may need to cooperate with Chinese manufacturers, and Tesla needs to set up a local computing center and set up a local algorithm adaptation team.

Citic Securities also pointed out that, first, the map data is highly sensitive and closely related to national security, and it is still unknown how Tesla will obtain the relevant qualifications, either in a joint venture with Chinese companies or in a pilot project in Shanghai. but it's not easy to roll it out on a large scale in a short time.

Second, the pure visual route relies more on a large number of data acquisition and model training for image processing, so Tesla built a supercomputing center Dojo and developed a D1 chip in the United States to greatly improve the efficiency of FSD training. The brokerage believes that in China, even if Tesla is qualified for data collection, there is a good chance that he can only conduct model training locally. This means that to achieve the same training efficiency as the US, Tesla needs to set up a Dojo-like supercomputing center in China, which requires a certain development cycle and cost.

What is the impact of ▌ FSD's entry into China?

What is the influence of Tesla FSD after entering China? According to the research and judgment of various securities firms, it may greatly strengthen consumer awareness, promote the penetration of domestic high-level smart driving, and trigger the "catfish effect" in the field of intelligent driving in our country.

For example, Citic Securities said that if Tesla's "extremely cost-effective hardware + high gross margin FSD software" model is launched on a large scale in China, it may be similar to the "ChatGPT moment" of smart cars; whether in terms of incremental demand or business model, it means new possibilities for domestic car companies and supply chains.

Guotai Junan report on March 26th also pointed out that if FSD succeeds in entering China, it will contribute to the rapid development of the domestic self-driving industry. At present, Tesla's FSD function has not yet landed in China, and the relevant work is in the process of advancing. If it succeeds in entering China in the future, FSD will become a strong competitor for domestic car companies in self-driving programs, and the competition in domestic self-driving highlands will become more and more fierce, which is conducive to the vigorous development of the self-driving industry.